Senate Report on Pre-Iraq War Intelligence

The report is 500 pages long and details more than 100 conclusions including that intelligence estimates of Iraqi weapons programs were “either overstated or were not supported by the underlying intelligence reporting.” The report essentially outlines a blunder of groupthink in reaching the unwarranted conclusion that Iraq was actively pursuing nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs. Ambiguous evidence was viewed as conclusive evidence. This report outlines a recent, salient and consequentially far-reaching example of the dangers of groupthink. An antecedent presumption that Iraq did have active and growing WMD programs caused mechanisms to challenge assumptions not to be utilized and, ultimately, a wrong conclusion to be reached. Assumptions were not challenged, alternative explanations were not considered and objectivity was lost. Groupthink is real and all organization systems are vulnerable to it and thus should have structural mechanisms in place to guard against it.

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